Change in Arizona’s Demographics Could Tip Elections
MONDAY, OCT 12, 2020
Less than a generation ago, Arizona was one of the most solidly Republican states in the nation. In 2020, its 7.3 million people will be residents of a hotly contested swing state with 11 electoral votes. President Donald Trump defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a 49-45 percent margin, about 90,000 votes.
Since then, Arizona has added almost 340,000 new residents. Only 107,000 of the new additions have been white, non-Hispanic residents, according to a Social Explorer analysis of Census Bureau population estimates. More than 150,000 of the new residents are Hispanics, a demographic more likely to support Democratic candidates than a Trump re-election.
Change in Hispanic Population, 2016-18. Click here to explore further.