Social Explorer’s Andrew Beveridge on New York’s Impending Loss of Congressional Seats by Sydney Beveridge
New York’s Congressional delegation is shrinking, yet again. Preliminary demographic analysis conducted by Social Explorer shows that the state lost enough population over the past ten years to lose up to two two congressional districts. In the New York Times article “New York’s House Delegation to Lose One or Two Seats,” Sam Roberts writes about this 60-year trend of an ever smaller New York delegation.
In the article, Social Explorer’s Andrew Beveridge explains how the next round of redistricting could play out:
“If New York State loses one seat, most of that loss will come upstate,” said Andrew A. Beveridge, a Queens College sociologist, who analyzed the population shifts for The New York Times. “If it loses two seats, then the older suburbs downstate will also lose, while New York City and the fast-growing outer ring suburbs will more likely hold their own.”
Districts are supposed to be roughly equal in population. If the delegation is reduced by one seat, each of the remaining 28 Congressional districts should have an average of at least 700,000 residents. Under that formulation, according to Dr. Beveridge’s analysis, two upstate districts, the 27th and the 28th, will each fall about 100,000 people short. If the state loses two seats, those two districts and five others upstate with too few people will need to be reconfigured.