Florida has edged out New York in population size, according to newly released Census Bureau estimates.  The citrus state now has about 19.9 million residents comapred to New York's 19.7 million.  (California and Texas remain the top two most populous states.)

Social Explorer's Andrew Beveridge spoke with reporters for the New York Times and the Miami Herald about comparing the land of apples to the land of oranges.

In "Ceding to Florida, New York Falls to No. 4 in Population," New York Times reporter Jesse McKinley writes that Florida gained 300,000 new residents in just 12 months–six times as many as New York.  Beveridge explains how immigration, airconditioning and other factors drove this growth:

Andrew A. Beveridge, a professor of sociology at Queens College and an expert on the census, said that New York and Florida had “always been a first stop for international immigrants,” but that New York’s émigrés did not always stick around. “In New York, they tend to upgrade their skills and then go somewhere else,” Mr. Beveridge said. New York has a large number of people who leave the state for other parts of the country, while the reverse is true in Florida. 

The South has been posting steady growth, with more than five million new residents since early 2010, according to census figures. The West also grew, but more slowly, while the Northeast and Midwest made only modest gains.

And sure enough, part of that gain in the South, Mr. Beveridge said, may be a result of air-conditioning. “I don’t know if you’ve ever been to Florida in August, but you wouldn’t want to be there without air-conditioning,” he said. In another curious observation, Mr. Beveridge pointed out that Florida tended to have more deaths than New York, though once again, that might be the result of a significant number of retirees from New York.

On the bright side, Mr. Beveridge said it was unlikely that New York would suffer the indignity of being passed in the population lane again anytime soon, as the next state on the list, Illinois, is millions of residents behind New York.

“We are going to have this ranking,” he said, “for a while.”

In "Florida surpasses N.Y. as nation’s third most populous state," Miami Herald reporter David Smiley examined the population, political, economic and other foces at play behind Florida's boom.  In the article, Beveridge explained the consequences for political power. 

Overall, Florida’s growth can be viewed as part of a shift in growth and political power to the south and southwest, said Andrew A. Beveridge, a professor of Sociology at Queens College.

“If you project out to 2020, it could lead to another [congressional] seat for Florida and a loss for New York,” Beveridge said. “This does portend the continued Southeast, Southwestern power shift, which has been going on pretty much since the 1950s.”

Indeed, in 1910, New York had 43 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives; Florida had four. Today, both states have 27 seats.

Beveridge said it’s unlikely New York, which relies on immigration to keep its population from dropping, would ever take back its bronze standing.

“I guess they forgot about all the hurricanes,” he said.

To see how this population boom will affect Santa's sleigh ride and winter attire, visit our peek inside Santa's data workshop.